A transparent ETH volatility-risk index from the ETH Trend Bot Journal: 16 indicators across derivatives, market, on-chain and macro data, plus recent news, combined into a 0–100 risk score that updates every 15 minutes.
Latest snapshot 2026-10-14 00:05 (Taiwan time)
ETH risk temperature: 52 (Moderate). Factors pushing the score up most: US Dollar Index (DXY), US 10-year Treasury yield, BTC 7-day change. Recent public news events: 10.
Backtest verdict: The score significantly predicts volatility over the next 7 days; its signal for drawdowns is weaker, and it cannot predict price direction.
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Data & method
- Indicators come from public data: exchange derivatives data, MAX market data, on-chain data (e.g. DefiLlama) and US macro data. Only computed risk percentiles are shown; raw third-party data is not republished.
- News events are summarized and translated by AI from public reports; only high-confidence events with a link to the original report are published. They may contain errors — the original report prevails.
- “Names that come up in the news” only counts mentions; it is not an assessment of any company or organization.
- Scores and levels are computed by code without manual adjustment.
- The bot's own risk control does use this score: when it is high, the bot pauses new entries and scales down position size (to avoid big swings, not to guess direction). This describes the bot's rules and is not advice to readers.
FAQ
What is the ETH Risk Thermometer?
It is the public version of the ETH Trend Bot Journal's risk knowledge graph: 16 indicators across four categories (derivatives & leverage, market trend, on-chain activity, macro & liquidity) plus recent news events, combined into a single 0–100 ETH risk score that updates every 15 minutes.
How do I read the score?
0–29 Low, 30–59 Moderate, 60–79 Elevated, 80–100 High. Each indicator is converted to its percentile over roughly the past year and weighted by category; news events fade over time (3-day half-life).
Can the score predict whether ETH goes up or down?
No. Backtests show that a higher score means a higher chance of large swings over the next week, but it cannot predict direction. Use it as a volatility thermometer, not a trading signal.
What is the risk graph?
It maps how risk categories, risk factors, news events and companies connect to ETH. Thicker lines mean stronger links; tap a node or a line to see the details and the news source.
Where does the data come from?
Public data: exchange derivatives data, MAX market data, on-chain data such as DefiLlama, and US macro data. News is summarized by AI from public reports with links to the originals. The site only publishes computed risk percentiles, not raw third-party data.
Can I use this data?
Yes. risk_en.json (a public summary updated every 15 minutes) is licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0: for non-commercial use, please credit "ETH Trend Bot Journal, ixi-trust.info". It is for research and reference only and is not investment advice.
✉️ Report an error
If something is wrong, or it concerns you or your organization, email laibflower@gmail.com with the page link and details. We will check it promptly and correct or remove it if needed; errors in AI-summarized news are handled first.